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Reykjavík, Iceland – In a surprising turn of events, Iceland has voted against resuming talks on joining the European Union, a decision that comes 13 years after the previous negotiations were halted. The outcome, with 52.8% of the 225,000 voters rejecting the government's proposal and 47.2% supporting it, has sparked a significant debate on the island's future and its role in the international community.
The referendum, which was originally scheduled for 2027, was brought forward due to international tensions, notably President Donald Trump's threats against Greenland. However, the focal point of the debate in Iceland, a nation of nearly 400,000 people, was not primarily security concerns but rather its vital fishing industry.
Iceland, already part of the EU's single market and Schengen border-free zone, would have gained full EU membership if the talks had resumed, potentially leading to its inclusion in the customs union and the eurozone. The country's EU application, begun in 2009 following the 2008 financial crisis, was initially well-advanced when a eurosceptic government took power in 2013 and suspended the talks.
The fishing industry has been a major sticking point throughout the negotiations. Iceland successfully fought to protect its fisheries during the Cod Wars with the UK in the 1970s and today, fish and marine industries account for nearly 40% of its exports. Many voters feared that EU membership would result in the loss of some control over these lucrative fishing grounds under the bloc's policies.
Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of politics at Bifröst University, explained that the "No" side was adept at tapping into Iceland's national identity, emphasizing formal independence. "They were able to appeal to people's very fundamental feelings," he said. In contrast, the "Yes" campaign was considered overly technical and failed to convey the passion for EU membership.
The referendum saw a high turnout of 82.5%, the highest since 2009. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, whose centre-left government had promised to hold the referendum, stated that the issue of EU membership would not be revisited while her government remained in office.
The geographical divide in voting was significant, with Reykjavík supporting EU accession and rural areas opposing it. The question on the ballot was straightforward: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" A "Yes" vote would have been a step towards an accession agreement, but it would have required approval by a second referendum.
The "No" vote does not entirely rule out the possibility of Iceland resuming talks in the future. While economic concerns dominated the referendum campaigns, security issues also played a role. Iceland, a NATO member with no military, relies on its allies for defense. EU membership would have provided full access to the bloc's joint defense infrastructure.
Iceland's Foreign Minister Katrín Gunnarsdóttir announced that she would seek to strengthen the country's defense relations with other nations following the referendum. However, Bergmann noted that the debate was firmly domestic and that global events did not significantly influence it.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the European think tank Bruegel, commented that the EU had failed to "sell itself" effectively, despite its desire to be seen as a security actor, particularly in the Arctic. He described the result as a "missed opportunity" for both Iceland and the EU.
An unnamed EU diplomat echoed this sentiment, telling Reuters that the outcome was "a clear setback for Brussels," while acknowledging the pivotal role of fishing and independence in the decision.
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