UK and France End 'One In, One Out' Migrant Return Pilot After Just 1,500 Removals

The British government has confirmed that its controversial "one in, one out" migration arrangement with France has been discontinued, bringing an end to a pilot programme that had been designed to deter small boat crossings across the English Channel. The scheme, which began just over a year ago, allowed the UK to send back some migrants who had arrived by small boat while simultaneously accepting an equal number of individuals from France who were deemed to have legitimate grounds for entering Britain.

Announcing the decision, a Home Office spokesperson said the pilot would no longer process new cases. However, the spokesperson indicated that removal flights would still operate in the coming weeks to deport small boat migrants who have no legal right to remain in the country. The government said it would apply the "lessons learned" from the pilot to speed up its broader efforts to remove individuals without valid asylum claims.

The numbers tell the story of a scheme that struggled to achieve its ambitions. Only around 1,500 people were removed to France over the course of the programme's operation. According to BBC reporting, the government would have preferred to keep the arrangement running but concluded that it had failed to reach the scale that ministers had hoped for when it was launched.

The Home Office chose to frame the termination as a recalibration rather than a failure. "The government's pilot with France to remove asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants is no longer processing new cases," the spokesperson said. "However, flights will continue over the coming weeks to swiftly remove small boat migrants from the UK, and we will use lessons learned from the pilot to accelerate efforts to return small boat migrants with no right to remain in the UK."

The French government confirmed that discussions about winding down the arrangement were underway. The French Interior Ministry told the BBC: "We are discussing with the British the terms of exit from the agreement." The phrasing suggests that while the scheme's fate is sealed, the two countries remain in talks about the practical details of its closure.

The pilot's demise follows earlier hints from within government that the scheme was under strain. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged to MPs earlier this month that the arrangement had "not been without its challenges." She noted that the numbers involved remained "relatively small" and that scaling up removals to France on a large weekly basis had proven operationally difficult.

Despite the difficulties, Mahmood also pointed to what she described as a deterrent effect. She said the United Nations and other agencies had reported that some migrants were choosing not to board small boats because they believed there was a chance they could be accepted under the "one in, one out" scheme. That argument was often used by supporters of the policy, who contended that even limited returns could influence decision-making among potential arrivals.

The cost of the programme has also drawn scrutiny. The home secretary previously revealed that the scheme cost approximately £56,000 for each person returned to France, a figure that critics seized upon as evidence of poor value for money. When set against the total of around 1,500 removals, the pilot's overall expenditure raises questions about whether the resources might have been better directed elsewhere.

Small boat crossings remain a politically charged issue in the UK. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, a total of 19,135 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. That figure represents a 42 per cent decrease compared with the same period the previous year, when 32,188 people made the journey. The government has highlighted this decline as evidence of "real progress," with a spokesperson noting that numbers are "significantly down on last year."

Since 2020, small boat arrivals have become the most common method by which people are detected entering the UK illegally. Nearly all of those who arrive this way claim asylum, and under international law they are permitted to remain in the country while their applications are assessed. Small boat arrivals accounted for 40 per cent of asylum applications between July 2025 and June 2026.

The demographics of those arriving have remained relatively consistent. People from Eritrea made up 18 per cent of all arrivals between July 2025 and June 2026. Other significant countries of origin included Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia and Iran. The Home Office has also reported that at least 2,335 people who arrived by small boat during 2025 were identified as potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery.

The boats themselves have become increasingly crowded. Vessels arriving in the UK between 28 September 2025 and 27 September 2026 carried an average of 67 people, more than double the average in 2021. Experts warn that overcrowding makes crossings significantly riskier. According to the United Nations, at least 84 people died while attempting to cross the Channel in 2024.

Beyond small boat arrivals, other unauthorised entry routes remain in use. Between July 2025 and June 2026, another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission through methods such as hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries, or arriving through airports. That figure was down 17 per cent compared with the previous year. Additionally, some individuals arrive legally on work or study visas and subsequently overstay their permitted time, though the total number of people living in the UK illegally after arriving legally is not known.

For context, small boat arrivals represent roughly 5 per cent of total immigration into the UK between January 2025 and December 2025. The government has repeatedly pledged to "smash the gangs" responsible for organising crossings, arguing that disrupting criminal networks is the most effective way to reduce the numbers making the dangerous journey.

The end of the "one in, one out" pilot leaves the UK and France searching for alternative mechanisms to manage migration across the Channel. Both governments have signalled that cooperation will continue, but the scrapping of this particular arrangement underscores the difficulty of translating political agreements into operational reality. Whether the "lessons learned" will produce a more effective replacement remains an open question.